Mathematical modelling of P. aeruginosa infections in ICUs
WP3B provides mathematical modelling in order to describe the burden of P. aeruginosa infections among intensive-care unit (ICU) patients. Including the development of anti-microbial resistance. The project contributes to choosing the interventions with the greatest impact, either singly or in combination.
The mathematical models include established and innovative approaches to explore interrelationships between pathogen, patient and the environment. The applied models include such aspects as multistate competing risks, Bayesian, stochastic and deterministic, dynamic mathematical transmission models, and time-series analysis.
The specific objectives of WP3B are to:
- evaluate the extra length of ICU stay and costs;
- evaluate the impact on mortality;
- evaluate the impact on Disability‐Adjusted Life Years (DALY);
- estimate the impact of antibiotic use on development of antibiotic resistance in P. aeruginosa;
- estimate the impact of different patient‐level interventions on the burden of P. aeruginosa infections;
- estimate the importance of P. aeruginosa acquisition routes in the ICU;
- perform cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analyses of prevention measures.
Describing the burden of P. aeruginosa in ICUs
Synthesis of the above elements will provide the HAI scientific community in general, and infection control practitioners and policy makers in particular, with an analytical framework and developed tools to describe the burden of P. aeruginosa in European ICUs.